Bitcoin Price Chart February 2025. Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 45, after being rejected from the neutral 50 level last week. This suggests BTC remains in a slightly bearish phase. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also shows a bearish crossover, signaling a possible continuation of the correction.
If Bitcoin continues to decline, it could test the $90,000 support level. However, if BTC regains momentum and reclaims $100,000, it could attempt to retest the Jan. 31 high of $106,012.
According to CryptoQuant, 14,000 BTC that had been inactive for 7 to 10 years were transferred on Monday. However, these funds have not been sent to exchanges, indicating they are not immediately up for sale. Movements of long-dormant Bitcoin often draw attention, as they can signal changes in investor behavior.
14,000 Bitcoins Moved After Years of Dormancy. Source: CryptoQuant
BTC Exchange Netflow Reaches FTX Collapse Levels
On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a sharp increase in BTC Exchange Netflow, returning to levels last seen during the FTX collapse. The latest shift follows a 3% decline in BTC supply on exchanges, suggesting significant withdrawals.
Bitcoin Exchange Netflow and Panic Selling Trends. Source: CryptoQuant
A similar outflow occurred in July 2023, indicating that large entities could be accumulating BTC during price dips. Despite this, market sentiment remains uncertain, with traders monitoring liquidity and institutional activity.
Macroeconomic Events and Market Volatility
A report from QCP Capital links recent Bitcoin volatility to global macroeconomic factors. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum raised concerns in financial markets. The report notes that Mexico and Canada, among the largest U.S. trade partners, could face renewed economic uncertainty.
Additionally, Trump’s remarks about potential sanctions on Japan followed the White House’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Traders are also awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, both of which could influence market trends.
BTC Price Probability Adjustments
Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, stated that the chances of BTC reaching $200,000 by Dec. 26, 2025, have increased slightly to 12%, up from 11% last week.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators. Source: TradingView
Additionally, he noted a 15% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $135,000 by the end of Q2 2025, an increase from 14%. These projections reflect shifting market expectations based on historical data and recent price movements.
